Background The most important part of the state social and economic policy is optimization of the healthcare system, where the loss of public health leads to economic damage. Against this background, forecasting the work of medical institutions is the basis for the successful development of healthcare, despite the fact that the healthcare system, indicators and standards of medical and social welfare are still not stable, and a clear development strategy for the shortand long-term period has not been worked out. Aim of study Determining the most optimal method for predicting the work of a medical institution, based on identification of the main trends in the time series when constructing a model of the dependence of parameters or determining the behavior of data as a stochastic series (i.e. modeling random processes and random events with some random error).

Material and methods To predict the main statistical indicators of N.V. Sklifosovsky Research Institute for Emergency Medicine based on a retrospective analysis, data were used that were submitted to the City Bureau of Medical Statistics and entered into official reporting forms (form № 30, approved by Goskomstat of the Russian Federation dated September 10, 2002, № 175): the number of hospitalized patients and mortality rates in inpatient and intensive care units. To select the optimal methodology for the experimental forecast model, data were used for the period from 1991 to 2016. Indicators for 2017 were taken as control values.

Results As a result of the comparison of several methods (moving averages, least squares approach, Brown model, Holt–Winters method, autocorrelation model, Box–Jenkins method) as applied to the work of N.V. Sklifosovsky Research Institute for Emergency Medicine, the Holt–Winters model was chosen as the most appropriate one for the data characteristics.

Findings 1. When using methods of moving averages, least squares, Box-Jenkins, as well as Brown model and autocorrelation, the forecast result is not always influenced by strictly straight-line indicators of the time series, due to the heterogeneity of the time series and the presence of outliers (often found in a medical institution providing emergency care), which lead to a significant decrease in the reliability of forecasting. 2. The application of the Holt–Winters model, which takes into account the exponential trend (the trend of time series indicators) and additive season (periodic fluctuations observed in the time series), is most suitable for processing statistical data and forecasting for long-term, medium-term and short-term periods taking the specifics of a hospital providing emergency care into account. 3. The choice of the optimal method for predicting the work of a medical institution, based on the identification of the main trends in the time series, taking most of the features in the modeling of random processes and events into account, allowed to reduce the relative forecast error.

Relevance The problem of diagnosing and treating patients with acute ischemia of the extremities against the background of thrombosis and atherosclerotic lesions of the main arteries remains very complex task and requires the use of various diagnostic methods, and the leading one is radiation diagnostics.

The aim of the study . The development of radionuclide patterns of acute lower limb ischemia and assessment of the treatment efficacy in angiosurgical patients using three-phase scintigraphy. Material and methods The radionuclide method was performed to examine 264 patients with acute thrombosis of the main arteries against the background of atherosclerotic lesions of the lower extremities arteries and clinical signs of acute ischemia of the lower extremities of I-III degree according to the classification of I.I. Zatevakhin.

Results We defined quantitative and visual signs of acute ischemia, designed radionuclide semiotics, which allowed to detail the damaged tissue of lower extremities and evaluate the efficacy of the conservative or surgical treatment. The study contains clinical examples of patients with varying degrees of acute limb ischemia.

Conclusion The developed radionuclide patterns of acute ischemia in thrombosis of main arteries of the lower extremities allowed to determine the level of arterial occlusion and the degree of acute ischemia, identify the areas of lack of blood supply and necrosis with no clinical signs at an early stage of formation and optimize the treatment strategy.

Abstract Anesthesiologists and resuscitators are at high risk of developing burnout, which can lead to various unfavorable consequences, such as suicide and/or medical errors. The aim of the study The dependence between happiness (satisfaction with life) and burnout in staff of anesthesiology and intensive care departments. Multicenter, anonymous, blind observational study.

Materials and methods Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI), Flourishing Scale (FS), Satisfaction with Life Scale (SWLS), the study also included a series of general questions (gender, age, specialization, subjective definition of “happiness”). The study included 361 participants, including 311 specialists from the departments of anesthesiology and intensive care, and a control group of 50 non-medical workers.

Results According to the MBI, high burnout scores were registered for all three subscales: 15% of anesthetists, 17.5% of resuscitators, 9.9% of nursing staff, 0% in the control group. The high figures of some of the three subscales of burnout: 82% of anesthesiologists, 66.25% of resuscitators, 59.4% of nurses and nursing assistants, 14% in the control group. The life satisfaction level was significantly lower in all groups of health care staff in the study, compared to the control group. Only a little more than half of the medical workers (56.59%) never thought about suicide, which means that almost half of the staff of the anesthesiology and resuscitation departments thought to some extent about suicide.

Conclusion There is a growing awareness of the problem of occupational stress and burnout in anesthesiology and resuscitation. The timely identification of the first symptoms of burnout, and the provision of anesthesiology-resuscitation staff with psychological tools/psychological support to deal with occupational stress and burnout are required today.

Relevance Chronic post-embolic pulmonary hypertension (CPEPH) is a complication of pulmonary thromboembolism found almost in every 10th patient. A special risk group consists of patients with a moderately high risk of pulmonary embolism associated death according to stratification of the probability of early death of the European Society of Cardiology. The development of this condition is potentially preventable with timely and adequate therapy in these patients. We have improved the approach to the treatment of pulmonary embolism patients, which allows indications for thrombolytic therapy to be clarified and expanded. The aim of the study is to evaluate its effectiveness in the long-term period, as well as analyze the qualities of life of patients with massive pulmonary embolism, who underwent thrombolytic and anticoagulant therapy.

Material and methods The treatment, as well as the analysis of long-term results and quality of life of 71 patients aged 29 to 88 years with diagnosed pulmonary embolism with a moderately high risk of early death were performed. All patients underwent general clinical and biochemical blood tests, D-dimer, ECG, echocardiography, ultrasound of the lower extremities veins, CT angiopulmonography. We registered the dynamics of echocardiographic symptoms of the right heart overload over 6 months (right ventricle size, pulmonary hypertension, the degree of tricuspid regurgitation), and assessed the quality of life based on a survey with the establishment of the appearance of shortness of breath, tachycardia, hospitalizations for heart failure during the study period. Depending on the type of therapy, the patients were divided into two groups: 38 patients with thrombolytic therapy and 33 patients with anticoagulant therapy. Subsequently, their comparative analysis was carried out.

Results and conclusion In patients with pulmonary embolism of moderately high risk of early death, who underwent thrombolytic therapy, chronic postembolic pulmonary hypertension developed 2.9 times less and a higher quality of life retained in these patients than in patients treated with anticoagulant drugs.

Relevance Inhalation trauma (IT) is a combined injury of the respiratory tract, lung parenchyma and the central nervous system. Alterations of a mucous membrane during thermochemical airway burn as a result of inhalation of combustion products is most fully described in the literature, while the lesion of pulmonary parenchyma hasn’t been studied. The aim of the study To determine the capabilities and significance of the X-ray method in the study of lungs in patients with IT.

Material and methods We examined 184 victims with IT, of which 53 patients had airways burn of the 1st degree, 92 patients had airways burn of the 2nd degree, and 39 patients had airways burn of the 3rd degree. Methods used: X-ray, chest X-ray computed tomography, ultrasound of the chest, study of the function of external respiration, morphological examination of lungs, statistical methods.

Results X-ray studies in patients with IT revealed changes in peripheral parts of both lungs like network deformation of pulmonary pattern to forms resembling “mulberries” or “a bunch of grapes”. A study of the function of external respiration revealed signs of decreased lung ventilation and obstructive changes in bronchioles. The X-ray computed tomography of peripheral regions of the lungs in some patients revealed multiple local areas of reduced density with no visible walls corresponding to alveoli holding the air. Histological examination of the peripheral parts of the lungs found round air formations and significantly expanded alveoli. These changes are associated with exhalation disorders due to the constriction of respiratory bronchioles.

Conclusion The X-ray method allows to detect signs of damage to the pulmonary parenchyma in patients with IT. Using a statistical evaluation, we showed that the presence of network deformation of the pulmonary pattern under the conditions of IT is an objective feature, confirmed with Cohen’s kappa coefficient (0.6±0.14; 95% CI [0.32–0.88]).

When penetrating into the cell, local anesthetics affect some structures and processes, in addition to blocking sodium channels, leading to the development of cell damage. The aim of the article was to study the damaging effect of bupivacaine on the sciatic nerve and biceps femoris in rats. The study is double-blind and placebo-controlled. We used 0.9% sodium chloride as the placebo. The studied concentrations of bupivacaine were 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.75%, and 1%. We performed perineural introduction of 0.2 ml into the sciatic nerve and administered 0.2 ml into the biceps femoris muscle under the ultrasound guidance. The samples were taken twice: 1 hour after administration, and over 14 days. Cell necrosis or apoptosis were not found in the muscle and nerve after the 0.9% sodium chloride administration; occasional inflammatory cells were detected. Introduction of all concentrations of bupivacaine induced damage and inflammatory infiltration of muscle tissue and neural structures compared with 0.9% sodium chloride solution. Dystrophic changes and neutrophilic infiltration were detected in nerve fibers. Perimuscular edema, apoptosis, polychromasia, necrosis, disappearance of cross-striation of muscles, clusters of inflammatory cells were found in the biceps femoris. Signs of damage and inflammatory infiltration decreased, but continued to persist over 14 days. The study showed the presence of neurotoxicity and myotoxicity of all concentrations of bupivacaine compared to a 0.9% sodium chloride solution. It was revealed that signs of damage and inflammatory infiltration persisted 14 days after the administration of bupivacaine.

Various circumstances of the injury lead to various types of brain damage. The main types of destructive effects are countracoup effect and acceleration/deceleration. The high intensity injuring force creates conditions for occurrence of combinations of different types of damage leading to aggravation of pathological processes caused by trauma, complication of clinical picture, difficulties of diagnosis and treatment, prolongation of hospital stay, and requires an additional methods of research and treating the injured. Finding the genesis of symptoms observed upon neurologic examination, and especially the differential diagnosis between primary and secondary lesions of the brain stem are nessesary to choose the emergency care for victims with severe traumatic brain injury, as well as to forecast the outcomes of treatment. The dynamics of neurological symptoms (level of wakefulness, pupil size, eyeball mobility, muscle tone and limb movement disorders, pathological plantar reflexes) have significant differences in patients with various types of brain damage, which makes a regular assessment of neurological status extremely important in these patients.

Ischemic stroke is a heterogeneous syndrome with a plurality of potential etiological factors. The routine diagnosis does not always allow the cause of acute cerebrovascular accident to be found, in such cases we talk about cryptogenic ischemic stroke, which incidence is 20-40%. The category of patients with cryptogenic stroke was first characterized and assigned to a separate group in the database of the National Institute of Neurological Diseases and Stroke in the USA, and later in the TOAST study. The diagnosis of cryptogenic stroke is usually based on the exclusion of well-known causes of acute cerebrovascular accidents, such as atherosclerosis, cardiac arrhythmias, arterial hypertension. Due to the considerable variability of concepts for cryptogenic stroke, the term ESUS (Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source) appeared in 2014 and formulated criteria which accurately characterized these patients: non-lacunar cerebral infarction by CT and/or MRI, no atherosclerotic lesion stenosing a stroke-associated artery of more than 50%, no sources of high-risk cardioembolism, no other causes of stroke such as dissection of the artery supplying the area of infarction in the brain, migraine, arteritis. Among the potential causes and sources of cerebral embolism in patients with cryptogenic stroke are heart, veins of lower extremities and pelvis, nonstenosing atherosclerosis of brachiocephalic artery, atheroma of aortic arch, paradoxical embolism non-atherosclerotic vasculopathy, monogenic diseases, hypercoagulable states, and others. We should note that there is a lot of studies on the possible causes of cryptogenic stroke in the available literature, but no common approach to classification of etiologic factors and examination algorythms were developed. The high incidence of cryptogenic stroke, the significant heterogeneity of its etiopathogenetic mechanisms and the need for differentiated approaches to the secondary prevention of this type of acute cerebrovascular accident determine the relevance of further studies in this field.

The emergence of new synthetic narcotic drugs is noted all over the world. The situation causes significant difficulties for toxicologists, resuscitators, narcologists, and clinical laboratory diagnostics doctors due to the lack of available data on the clinical picture of poisoning by these compounds and laboratory diagnostic methods. In most cases, the clinical picture of drug intoxication or poisoning with new synthetic substances differs from the symptoms caused by previously known drugs, such as cocaine or opiates. Therefore, chemical toxicological research is one of the important aspects for establishing the fact of intoxication or poisoning.

The article provides a situational task with a detailed solution, reflecting the principles and procedure for the provision of emergency medical care outside a medical organization during a technogenic emergency (explosion followed by a fire) with several victims. This type of educational technology is applicable both during practical exercises with elements of simulation training, and monitoring the level of training of medical personnel.

The post-traumatic diaphragmatic hernia is a rare type of trauma which most commonly occurs after the blunt trauma of the thorax and abdomen. In the acute period of trauma, the symptoms of the emergency diseases and nonspecific signs of the diaphragmatic rupture are the reasons of frequent diagnostic mistakes. A missed diaphragmatic rupture grows in time and leads to migration of organs from the abdominal cavity to the thoracic one due to pressure gradient. The symptoms of diaphragmatic hernia are not expressed and the duration of the asymptomatic period of the disease may vary from some years to 10 years and longer. The increasing restructuring of the abdominal wall leads to reduced abdominal cavity, which makes the standard reconstructive surgery difficult, the intraabdominal pressure grows and relapse occurs in the postoperative period. In these cases, surgeons perform complex techniques which enlarge the abdominal cavity with local tissues or an artificial graft. However, there are no clear recommendations about the extent of the abdominal wall reconstruction so that the abdominal cavity size would be adequate for organs. The authors suggested a simple method to calculate it and used it in practice. In the article, we report the clinical case of a 53-year-old woman with a giant post-traumatic diaphragmatic hernia after motor vehicle accident 48 years ago and offer an original method of treatment. The first operation including hernia resolution and repair of diaphragmatic rupture was complicated by relapse on the second day after operation due to the high intra-abdominal pressure. During the second reconstructive surgery (4 months later), the authors performed their own method of abdominal cavity enlargement and got a good result in the shortand long-term postoperative period.

We report the results of studies of clinical manifestations, chemical and toxico-logical tests, efficacy of complex treatment, which included antidote therapy, intestinal lavage and symptomatic treatment in patients with acute thallium poisoning, who were admitted to the Department of Acute Poisonings Treatment of the N.V. Sklifosovsky Research Institute for Emergency Medicine or underwent outpatient treatment.

Abstract Relevance. Esophageal foreign body may be safely removed with rigid esophagoscopy. However, endoscopic methods are not always successful, and this may require a surgery. Aim of study We report a case of an unusual esophageal foreign body.

Materials and methods A 34-year-old male patient P. with a foreign body in the esophagus. Endoscopic, radiological, and laboratory diagnostic methods were performed to confirm a foreign body in the esophagus.

Results A rare clinical observation of a 34-year-old male patient P. with a foreign body in the esophagus is presented (package with psychoactive substances). After an unsuccessful attempt to remove a foreign body using esophagoscopy, thoracotomy was performed and a foreign body was mechanically brought down into the stomach without opening the lumen of the esophagus. In the postoperative period, the condition was serious, the patient had been in coma for 10 days. There was hectic fever on day 7. On day 9, the left thoracotomy was performed, the revision showed no damage to the esophagus. Urine analysis for psychoactive substances was performed and detected tetrahydrocannabinol acid and aminochlorobenzophenone, a derivative of 1,4-benzodiazepine. On day 9, after repeated surgery, the patient confirmed the fact of swallowing a package of psychoactive substances, being conscious. On day 14 after the second operation, the patient was transferred to the regional narcological hospital.

Conclusion In patients with a foreign body in the esophagus in difficult clinical situations, it is necessary to collect anamnesis carefully, apply endoscopic, radiological and laboratory diagnostic methods, including urinalysis for psychoactive substances.